College Football 25 simulation: Does BYU have any shot of upsetting Kansas State?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
Big 12 season is here for BYU.
The Cougars open up conference play Saturday night by hosting a No. 13 Kansas State team that is fresh off a dominant victory over then-ranked Arizona.
Is BYU walking into a buzzsaw scenario to kick off the most difficult stretch of their 2024 schedule, or can the Cougars put up a fight in the friendly confines of LaVell Edwards Stadium?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game — and the Cougars had a puncher’s chance against the Wildcats.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — in my opinion, passers were completing an unrealistic amount of pass attempts in previous simulations, so I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 75. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.
For BYU, the biggest adjustment came at running back, with both LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati doubtful for the game.
I moved Miles Davis into the starting RB spot, and with Enoch Nawahine not on BYU’s roster in the video game, Ropati stayed at second on the depth chart — he ended up not playing in the simulation, as Davis primarily took RB snaps.
BYU’s 1996 throwback uniforms it will be wearing in the actual game weren’t available on the video game, so I went with the all-white uniforms for BYU with royal trim. Kansas State wore its home purple jerseys, since the Wildcats couldn’t wear their road whites.
The actual score: BYU 34, Wyoming 14
College Football 25 simulation final score: BYU 41, Wyoming 20
My analysis: The simulation narrowly missed projecting the margin of victory 100% accurately, missing by a single point. In the simulation, both schools also scored one more touchdown than what happened in the actual game.
This was about as accurate a simulation as I’ve seen this season — in both simulation and actual game, BYU built an insurmountable lead and kept Wyoming’s offense locked down until late.
Final score: Kansas State 24, BYU 17 (overtime)
Key sequence: This one is going to sting for Cougar fans — well, it did at least for those virtual ones in the video game.
BYU managed to force overtime with a fourth-quarter touchdown, and Kansas State got the ball first in the extra session.
With the Wildcats facing a third-and-15, Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson scrambled and broke off a 22-yard run to the BYU 8. Three plays later, running back Dylan Edwards scored on a 1-yard touchdown run to give Kansas State the lead back.
On their overtime possession, the Cougars picked up a first down at the Kansas State 14 on a pass to Kody Epps.
On the next play, though, Jake Retzlaff tried to connect with his leading receiver, Chase Roberts, but was intercepted in the end zone by the Wildcats’ Keenan Garber, ending the game.
How the simulation transpired: BYU never led in the contest, but Kansas State could never pull away from the Cougars.
Also, there was a major, unexplainable computer glitch that cost the Wildcats — I’ll explain in a minute.
Kansas State struck first, moving the ball downfield on its opening possession by mixing up the run and pass — the Wildcats also picked up a critical third down inside the BYU red zone when Dante Cephas caught a pass and advanced to the Cougar 1-yard line.
That set up a DJ Giddens 1-yard touchdown run and a 7-0 Kansas State lead.
BYU countered with its own balanced drive — Davis had runs of 14 and 17 yards, while Roberts made a 10-yard catch to set up first and goal at the 10.
The Cougars had to settle for a 22-yard Will Ferrin field goal, though, to make it 7-3 heading into the second quarter.
After an empty possession for both teams, Kansas State extended its lead to 10-3 on a 35-yard Chris Tennant field goal midway through the second.
Like they would much of the night, the Cougars had an answer — and Davis made two big plays on the ensuing 75-yard drive.
First, he picked up a first down with an 8-yard run on third and inches, getting BYU into Kansas State territory.
Then, a few plays later, Retzlaff found Davis for a 35-yard touchdown catch with 1:45 until halftime, tying the game at 10-10.
OK, here’s the glitch — Kansas State had all of its timeouts remaining and relied on its pass game to move the ball downfield on their next possession.
But instead of ever using a timeout and playing hurry up, the Wildcats drove inside the BYU 10, then let the half expire on a short pass that ran out the clock.
It made no sense — and a similar situation happened at the end of the fourth quarter. Kansas State should have won in regulation.
No one scored in the third quarter, as the teams traded punts, BYU missed a 48-yard field goal attempt and Siale Esera intercepted Johnson at the Kansas State 45.
Following that Esera pick, BYU had a chance to take the lead and converted two third downs to get inside the red zone, but Retzlaff was intercepted for the first time in the game — Kansas State’s Jacob Parrish picked off a pass into double coverage in the middle of the end zone with 7:51 to play.
It was a costly mistake.
The dual-threat Johnson scrambled to pick up a first down on third-and-9 on the ensuing drive, gaining 18 yards.
On the next play, he hit Cephas on a short pass and the wide receiver raced toward the end zone before being caught at the BYU 2 for a 60-yard gain.
On second and goal, Johnson scored on a 2-yard keeper with 4:27 to play.
BYU, though, wasn’t finished. Keanu Hill twice caught passes on third down to move the sticks, including a 39-yarder that moved the Cougars to the Kansas State 21 at the two-minute timeout.
Three plays later, Retzlaff found Keelan Marion for an 18-yard touchdown with 1:32 to play to tie the game at 17-17.
Again, like the end of the first half, Kansas State moved the ball into BYU territory, but never called timeout and let the clock expire, and the game went to overtime.
Thanks to Kansas State’s heroics in the extra session, the Wildcats emerged victorious after being on upset watch most of the night.
Star players: Johnson completed 85% of his passes for 292 yards, and he added 47 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Giddens led Kansas State with 51 rushing yards, while Cephas had a game-high 91 receiving yards on five catches.
Retzlaff threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns, though those two interceptions were especially costly late in the game.
Davis ended up with 126 yards of total offense — 69 rushing and 57 receiving — while Hill and Epps each had 75 receiving yards.
Key stats: It was a tight game throughout — Kansas State ended up with 385 yards of total offense, while BYU had 349.
The Cougars stayed in it by converting 12 of 18 third downs, while the Wildcats converted 6 of 11.
Turnovers were the catalyst, though — BYU lost the turnover battle 2-1, and both came in the red zone.
My analysis: This is closer than you’d expect, especially given how dominant Kansas State looked against Arizona last week.
This is why they play the games, though — if the Cougars can lean on a little LaVell Edwards Stadium magic in a late-night contest (yes, BYU fans, we’re fully aware of the team’s night record in recent years), perhaps a close game is possible.
Still, I’d bank more on Kansas State slowly pulling away in this one.